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Methodology

Northern Virginia Market Report Methodology

How the Northern Virginia market reports define their geography, calculate changes, reconcile sources, and separate regional context from property-specific advice.

Market report readers7 min read

The geography stays consistent across every monthly chart

The primary series follows the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors regional reporting area: Fairfax and Arlington counties; the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, and Fairfax; and the towns of Vienna, Herndon, and Clifton.

Figures for the Washington, D.C. metro or the broader Bright MLS Mid-Atlantic service area may appear as separately labeled editorial context. They are never inserted into the NVAR chart series.

Six metrics describe price, activity, supply, and speed

Median sold price is the midpoint of monthly closed-sale prices. Closed sales counts completed transactions, while sold dollar volume is their combined value. Active listings measures homes offered for sale at month end, months of supply estimates how long that inventory could last at the recent sales pace, and average days on market measures time from listing to a ratified contract.

These figures describe a regional market. They do not estimate an individual property's value, likely time on market, or negotiating position.

Month-over-month and year-over-year changes come from raw values

Month-over-month change compares a reporting month with the immediately preceding month. Year-over-year change compares it with the same calendar month one year earlier. Each percentage is calculated from the committed raw values and displayed to one decimal place.

The focus chart aligns the rolling twelve months ending in the report month with the same calendar months one year earlier. An archived report never includes data published after its own reporting month.

Official tables take priority when sources disagree

Monthly values are transcribed from NVAR Home Sales Reports and Market Statistics releases. When an official table conflicts with accompanying prose, the chart follows the most internally consistent tabular series and the report discloses the discrepancy.

Later comparison reports are used when NVAR restates an earlier months-of-supply figure. Sold volume uses the published monthly total when available and otherwise uses reported closed sales multiplied by the published average sold price.

Sources are reviewed and committed with each report

The dataset is maintained as reviewed static content rather than collected through runtime scraping or an automated feed. Every monthly row retains its own source reference, and each report links its primary and contextual sources.

Monthly corrections update the affected source note, narrative, tests, and modification date. Historical values are not silently interpolated when an official baseline is missing or disputed.

Regional trends are a starting point, not a valuation

A regional median can move differently from a particular neighborhood, property type, condition tier, or price band. Inventory also varies in relevance: a nearby listing is not necessarily a substitute for a specific home.

Property-specific decisions should use recent comparable sales, current competition, condition, location, financing, timing, and the goals of the buyer or seller.

Sources

Common questions

Why can a source percentage differ slightly from the chart?

The chart calculates changes from the displayed raw values and rounds the result to one decimal place. A source may calculate from unrounded internal values, which can produce a small difference that is noted when material.

Are Bright MLS regional figures included in the charts?

No. Bright MLS figures may provide separately labeled Mid-Atlantic or Washington-area context, but the chart series uses the consistent NVAR reporting area only.

Can the regional report estimate a specific home's value?

No. The report describes regional conditions. A property analysis must account for location, property type, condition, improvements, current competition, and comparable sales.

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